Inflation in India has a high probability of shooting through the Reserve Bank of India's targets in the second half of the financial year 2026-27, with a potential spike beyond the 6 per cent upper band.

Inflation in India may exceed RBI's 6% target in the second half of the financial year 2026-27, according to brokerage firm Prabhudas Lilladher.

India's economy presented mixed signals this week, including a surprise current account surplus in the March quarter and a rise in retail inflation in May.

India’s economy offered mixed signals this week, including a surprise current account surplus in the March quarter, steady global confidence in India’s growth prospects, and a sharp rise in corporate debt raising after the Reserve Bank of India’s recent measures.

India's economy showed mixed signals this week, including a surprise current account surplus in the March quarter and a sharp rise in corporate debt raising, but also pressure points like increased retail inflation in May.

CPI inflation is projected to settle in the range of 5.2 per cent–5.5 per cent in FY27, assuming some impact from El Nino and an average crude oil price of $90–100 per barrel.

There is 80 per cent likelihood of an El Nino event during the June–August period, with probabilities to continue until at least November near or above 90 per cent.

CPI inflation is projected to settle in the range of 5.2 per cent–5.5 per cent in FY27.