The International Energy Agency expects global crude supplies to recover sharply, with output growth far outpacing demand and creating a potential 5 million barrels-per-day surplus in 2027, following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after the Iran war.

How this affects you

The expected 5 million bpd oil surplus in 2027, driven by the resolution of the Iran war, will dramatically shift the global energy market from shortage to surplus, potentially easing price pressures and allowing countries to rebuild depleted inventories. The immediate impact is that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have already started improving, with total Middle East crude flows recovering to nearly 12 million bpd in early June.